When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

基于循环追踪算法的编队航天器交会控制

采用循环追踪算法解决编队航天器交会控制问题。建立并推导了线性循环追踪算法和非线性循环追踪算法数学模型,提出了绕飞平面采用循环追踪控制,绕飞平面法向采用比例微分进行振动抑制的编队交会控制律。基于脉冲推力方式,对绕飞平面分别采用线性和非线性循环追踪的三航天器编队交会控制问题进行了仿真分析。仿真结果表明,提出的基于循环追踪的控制方式可满足编队航天器交会控制要求,航天器按顺时针运行轨迹交会于初始位置决定的参考中心,三航天器间相对距离、相对运动速度变化趋势基本一致,速度增量消耗较小,为航天器编队构形控制研究提供有益参考。     

基于矢量运算的舰空弹对抗反舰弹脱靶量分析

脱靶量是舰空导弹重要的作战性能指标,针对某型导弹,从攻防对抗的机理出发,采用矢量运算概念描述舰空导弹对抗反舰导弹的脱靶量。结合矢量运算法则,建立舰空导弹拦截矢量模型、反舰导弹机动矢量模型,同时考虑了导引头噪声和舵系统的过载限制,提出了一种制导盲区脱靶量的解算方法。然后针对不同运动特性的目标、不同干扰强度进行仿真计算。仿真结果表明,目标运动特性和导引头干扰误差等因素对脱靶量大小影响显著,为评价舰空导弹作战效能和有针对性的采取拦截措施提供了技术参考。     

便携式红外寻的防空导弹超前修正导引规律研究与仿真

针对便携式红外寻的防空导弹瞄准点与理想命中点不重合的矛盾,提出导弹超前修正导引规律的末端修正方法,导出其数学模型和控制系统实现方法。仿真表明,简化后的导弹超前修正导引规律能够达到理想的前向偏移目的,且具有目标自适应导引（TAG）的特性。超前修正导引规律是对经典比例导引规律的修正和提升,更好地满足了便携式红外寻的防空导弹的性能指标和命中精度要求。     

Mixed rules in multi‐issue allocation situations

Multi‐issue allocation situations study problems where an estate must be divided among a group of agents. The claim of each agent is a vector specifying the amount claimed by each agent on each issue. We present a two‐stage rule. First, we divide the estate among the issues following the constrained equal awards rule. Second, the amount assigned to each issue is divided among the agents in proportion to their demands on this issue. We apply the rule to two real‐world problems: the distribution of natural resources between countries and the distribution of budget for education and research between universities.     

一种复合制导的中末交班策略研究

针对复合制导中的中末制导交班问题,设计了一种可同时实现导引头和弹道交班的方案.中制导应用变结构控制理论设计了一种中制导律使导引头在中制导结束时指向目标;交接导引段实现比例系数的过渡,从而保证了弹道的平滑过渡.仿真结果证明了该方案能够适用于远距离制导的复合制导.     

组合末制导律及其仿真研究

传统的比例导引具有很多缺点。第一,在攻击大机动目标时的控制精度差;第二,对导弹的需用过载要求大;第三,增益高的比例导引中任何噪声都会使它的性能大大降低。为了克服上述缺点,提出了一种简单有效的组合末制导规律,即比例加追踪法的组合末制导规律,它继承了纯比例导引所具有的简单、易于实现的优点,同时还可以降低导弹的需用过载,提高导弹的打击精度。经过大量的数字仿真,所提出的组合末制导律,导弹的平均过载和峰值以及终端脱靶量均小于比例导引。     

基于扩展比例导引律的制导模型

针对常用比例导弹导引律制导命中率低的问题,分析了比例导引律、偏置比例导引律、修正比例导引律的制导性能,提出了一种基于扩展比例导引律的制导模型,经仿真表明,该导引律具有目标垂直和水平机动跟踪能力,提升了反导作战的机动能力和效率。     

基于比例危险模型的船用柴油机视情维修决策

针对船用柴油机视情维修决策问题,采用威布尔比例危险模型描述了系统状态与故障率之间的关系,利用核主成分分析对协变量进行了去相关和约简处理,以平均费用最小为决策目标,建立了视情维修的最优维修策略模型,并根据设备当前状态信息来判断是否需要进行维修。实例分析表明：该方法有效融合了历史故障信息和运行状态信息,提高了柴油机可用度,降低了维修保障费用。     

Combined proportional navigation law for interception of high-speed targets

A new proportional navigation (PN) guidance law, called combined proportional navigation (CPN), is proposed. The guidance law is designed to intercept high-speed targets, which is a common case for ballistic targets. The range of target-to-interceptor speed ratio during target interception is derived when guidance laws are applied in high-speed targets interception, and the effectiveness of negative navigation ratio in the PN-based guidance law is proven analytically in some lemmas. Based on the lemmas, the lateral acceleration command of CPN is defined, and the solution to the appearance of singularity in time-varying navigation ratio is given. The simulation results show that CPN can determine head-on engagement (as PN) or tail-chase engagement (as RPN) through initial path angle compared with PN and retro proportional navigation (RPN), and can adjust the value of navigation ratio for head-on engagement or tail-chase engagement. Therefore, the capture region of CPN is larger than that of other guidance laws using PN-based methods.